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It’s been an incredible 2021 both personally (my 2nd daughter Camae was born, I’ve learned a ton and made new friends) and for the crypto/metaverse ecosystem. As we head into 2022, I wanted to share my biggest lessons from 2021 and my predictions for the new year.
Lesson #1: Just get started
In June, I left my full-time job at Amazon to challenge myself and make the world better. I didn’t have all the answers but I got started by launching a new community and teaching a course and am now loving writing this newsletter and prototyping something new at the intersection of education and web3 that I’m super excited about.
Start somewhere, get better daily, and trust the process that over time it will pay off.
Lesson #2: Be involved
I used to only be a consumer of crypto. I’d read crypto twitter, devour podcasts and check prices.
But it turns out that just watching is akin to being a sports fan: you deal with all the emotional turmoil/FOMO without any control. However unlike professional sports, crypto empowers any of us to contribute.
Join your favorite community whose mission you love and help push it forward. I’ve joined a couple DAOs this year and it’s been so rewarding.
Beyond earning, the biggest advantage is something Sahil Bloom references in his biggest lessons learned from 2021: engineered serendipity.
Contribution leads to connection leads to opportunity.
Lesson #3: Take Care of Yourself
In August, I was struggling: I was hard on myself for missing out on certain trades or NFTs. This FOMO caused me to be on Twitter even more to a point where I felt like a zombie when talking to family or friends.
I knew I needed a change so I made a decisive one: I went cold turkey on Twitter and no longer read the timeline.
Yes, I know I might miss stuff but between newsletters I’m subscribed to and communities I’m in, I get 80-90% of the information eventually and am a lot happier.
There’s a million things happening per minute in crypto - don’t get so wrapped up that you sacrifice your mental health.
Lesson #4: Money isn’t everything
When you grow up without a ton of money, you think when you have some (or a lot), you’ll be blissfully content. Society has intentionally wired that into our heads from an early age so that the capitalist merry-go-around keeps spinning.
The truth is that after you’ve achieved comfort, more money doesn’t make you happier. It doesn’t fulfill you or give you peace. I learned this the hard way in 2021.
I’m not saying don’t make money - but don’t let it be your only goal.
You’ll find it’s not worth it.
Prediction #1: This market cycle is far from over.
The current market lull is a GREAT set-up for an epic rally in the first half of 2022.
It allows more buyers to enter the ecosystem and become believers — especially young people, institutions and developing nations who have nothing else to invest in with stocks and real estate being at ATHs and inflation surging.
Bear markets happen not from an increase in sellers, but from a lack of buyers.
More buyers = 📈.
Prediction #2: BTC and ETH will become the FAANG of crypto
Unlike prior cycles, I don’t see BTC and ETH having 70+% drawdowns at the end of this current market cycle. Just like FAANG, Bitcoin and Ethereum will go up and to the right steadily over time and have less pronounced (~30-40%) drawdowns when cycles. As crypto adoption increases, more people will pile in $$ in these two assets as consensus opinion moves from high-risk to must-hold.
Altcoins especially Solana, Avalance, and Terra will behave much more similarly to how BTC/ETH did during 2017 IMO - parabolic run-ups where they may go 3-5X from where they are now and then 80+% crashes.
Prediction #3: The Year of the NFT Bear
NFT mania continues: you can now own a picture of an Olive Garden franchise on chain even though it has no connection to ownership of the franchise — which sold out. If this isn’t top, I don’t know what is lol.
As the supply of possible NFTs to own expands daily, we’ll eventually see a lack of buyers — which will drag price as current owners, many of whom are in it for a quick flip, will want to cash out when those flips aren’t happening.
We’ve already seen this with ArtBlocks Curated pieces, whose floors of some projects have dropped 70+% since August.
I’m convinced NFTs will rule all someday but get ready for more pain in the next 6 months and opportunity to buy amazing NFTs at discount prices.
Prediction #4: DAOs will make a $250+MM world-benefitting purchase
Learning from ConstitutionDAO, I predict a DAO will buy something massive that is world-positive in 2022. Something whose mission is less rooted in profit and more-so in making collective positive change such as buying a nature preserve or rainforest to protect against deforestation.
Prediction #5: People are wrong about the metaverse
Prices of virtual real estate have gone through the roof because people are so focused on the “Ready Player One” future. Sure that may happen someday, but not anytime soon. The tech isn’t here yet plus its kinda dystopian — and we’ll see a sizable correction.
As my boy Shaan Puri explains in this thread, the metaverse (for now) is really about the digital representation of your physical self. The opportunities here are around wallets/digital identity, NFTs (both P4P and credentialing), and the infra needed to support this.
Prediction #6: War is coming
The battle lines will become clearly drawn: on one side you’ll have the powers that be who are at risk of being disrupted by crypto — which is basically the entire status quo including governments, central + big banks, and big tech. On the other side, you have the crypto ecosystem.
My prediction: crypto will suffer a major regulatory-related loss this year in the US. It won’t be a crypto ban, but likely security law or DeFi related which will result in the end of this market cycle.
Just because we might lose the first battle doesn’t mean the war is lost.
Change is never easy. Let’s keep fighting for progress.
Note: The predictions above are my opinion and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research. Also, if you enjoyed this, I’d appreciate it if you could share with atleast 1 other person who might like this!
See everyone in 2022!